Illicit Trafficking of Radiological & Nuclear Materials:  Modeling and Analysis of Trafficking Trends and Risks*


David L. York, Gary Rochau, Tracia West

Sandia National Laboratories

P.O. Box 5800 MS 0748

Albuquerque, NM  87185





Concerns over the illicit trafficking of radiological and nuclear materials were focused originally on the lack of security and accountability of such material throughout the former Soviet states.  This is primarily attributed to the frequency of events that have occurred involving the theft and trafficking of critical material components that could be used to construct a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) or even a rudimentary nuclear device.  However, with the continued expansion of nuclear technology and the deployment of a global nuclear fuel cycle these materials have become increasingly prevalent, affording a more diverse inventory of dangerous materials and dual-use items.  To further complicate the matter, the list of nuclear consumers has grown to include:


* This work sponsored by Sandia National Laboratories, a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.